Malaysia's May Trade 2009

Malaysia Trade Surplus Expands In May 07/03/09 07:13 am (EST)
(RTTNews) - Friday, a report by Malaysia's Department of Statistics said the trade surplus stood at MYR 10.02 billion in May, up from MYR 7.36 billion surplus in April. Moreover, this came in higher than economists' expectations of a MYR 8.88 billion surplus.
Exports dropped 29.7% annually in May to MYR42.95 billion, after falling 26.3% in April. Economists expected a drop of 29.2%. Imports slipped 27.8% to MYR32.93 billion compared to a 24.6% decline in the preceding month. Economists expected imports to drop 24.3%.
On a monthly basis, exports grew 4.5%, while imports fell 2.3% in May. Meanwhile, in the first five months of the year, exports decreased 23.5%, while imports were down 27.4% compared to last year.

Malaysian Exports Drop for an Eighth Month on Electronics

By Shamim Adam and Michael J. Munoz
July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s exports fell for an eighth straight month as shipments of electronics and commodities plunged amid the global recession.
Overseas shipments dropped 29.7 percent in May from a year earlier to 42.95 billion ringgit ($12.2 billion) after declining 26.3 percent the previous month, the trade ministry said in a statement in Kuala Lumpur today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists had been for a 29.2 percent fall.

Malaysia’s economy contracted for the first time since 2001 in the first quarter as overseas sales slumped, pushing the country toward its first recession in a decade. The export decline was exacerbated by a drop in commodity prices from last year’s record levels, hurting a nation that’s the world’s second-biggest producer of palm oil.

“Despite the recent increase, crude palm oil and oil prices are far lower than a year ago, and unfavorable base effects may continue to weigh on year-on-year growth in the next one to two months,” said Kit Wei Zheng, a Singapore-based economist at Citigroup Inc.
Global sales by U.S. electronics makers in Malaysia may fall 27.5 percent to 54.6 billion ringgit this year as the world recession slashes demand for computer chips and other devices, the American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce’s electronics industry group said. That compares with a 2 percent gain in 2008.

Still, data on production and overseas sales from the region’s other economies signal some resumption in demand. South Korea’s exports fell at the slowest pace in eight months in June from a year earlier, while Japan’s industrial production climbed for a third month in May from the previous month.
Impending Recovery

“The worst quarter of this recession is clearly behind us and we should get better visibility of an impending recovery in the months ahead,” said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore.

Malaysia’s $187 billion economy shrank 6.2 percent in the first three months of the year and is forecast by the government to contract as much as 5 percent in 2009. Prime Minster Najib Razak, who has unveiled two stimulus plans worth 67 billion ringgit to spur growth, said this week he expects a recovery in the second half of the year.

Shipments from Malaysia to Singapore, China, the U.S. and Japan, its four largest markets, dropped in May from a year earlier as commodity and electronics sales fell, the trade ministry said.

Malaysia’s imports dropped 27.8 percent in May to 32.9 billion ringgit, leaving a trade surplus of 10.02 billion ringgit. Exports fell 23.5 percent to 205.4 billion ringgit in the first five months while imports contracted 27.4 percent to 155.3 billion ringgit, resulting in a trade surplus of 50.1 billion ringgit, the report showed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net

KUALA LUMPUR, July 3 (Reuters) - Malaysia's exports in May fell 29.7 percent from a year earlier on, faster than the 28.8 percent expected in a Reuters poll and at a faster pace than April's 26.3 percent fall, Trade Ministry data released on Friday showed. KEY POINTS
- Exports down 29.7pct yr/yr, worse than 28.8 pct drop f'cast
- Largest yr/yr drop since 1980 when Reuters Ecowin data starts
- May exports to China down 27.7 pct yr/yr
- May exports up 4.1 pct from April


'Malaysia's exports, in line with our expectation, contracted more in May by 29.7% y/y from -26.3% in April. The sharper contraction in May exports unsurprisingly was driven by the plunge in export value of key commodities like crude palm oil (-34.4%y/y) and crude oil (-57%y/y) compared to one year ago. Demand for electronics (-28%y/y) remained weak as well.

'Fortunately, decline in imports continued to accelerate in May as well to -27.8% (from -22.4% in April) and this translated into a trade surplus of MYR 10.1bn, from MYR 7.4bn in April.

'Commodity exports may yet remain under pressure for the June and July, especially when we note that global oil prices were rallying and peaked at USD147 pb in July 2008 before collapsing in H2-2008, and thus this would continue to exert a significant negative base effect on Malaysia's crude oil and crude palm oil exports in June and July, before rapidly disappearing as we go into the second half of the year.

'Thus, while Malaysian exports are likely to register more months of contractions (y/y basis), the magnitude will start to narrow as we go into H2-2009 and may even turn slightly positive by late 2009.

'Meanwhile, Malaysia's Q1 BOP returned to positive ground by MYR 3.27bn after a massive MYR 61.88bn deficit in Q4 last year. The return to surplus despite Q1-2009 being a terrible quarter for growth (with GDP contracting a sharp 6.2%y/y) was attributed to a still healthy current account surplus while the financial account outflow eased significantly in the first three months of 2009 after the significant outflow recorded in H2-2009.

'The current account surplus was largely due to the still strong trade surplus, as the imports fell sharply even as exports growth collapsed in recent months. However, going into the next few months, we expect the pace of imports decline to slow, and we could yet see the trade surplus to start narrowing again in the months ahead.


April exports and imports were down 26.3 percent and 22.4 percent from a year ago while the trade surplus was 7.36 billion ringgit.
- Malaysia's exports have been sliding since September due to weaker electronics demand and lower commodity prices.
($1=3.514 Malaysian Ringgit)

M'sia exports plunge 29.8%

KUALA LUMPUR - MALAYSIA'S exports slumped 29.7 per cent in May from a year earlier, hitting their lowest level since 2001 with demand evaporating, according to official data released on Friday.

The trade ministry said in a statement that exports plunged to RM42.95 billion (S$17.7 billion) year-on-year while imports fell 27.8 per cent.

Total trade from January to May was worth RM360.78 billion, a decrease of 25.3 per cent from a year earlier, but Malaysia did manage to record a trade surplus of RM10.02 billion for May.
Yeah Kim Leng, chief economist at ratings agency RAM Holdings, said the sharp contraction was the worst for Malaysia since the dot com bubble burst in 2001.

'This is worse than expected given that we were expecting some improvements,' he told AFP, noting that export figures however improved slightly by 4.5 per cent month-on-month from April.

'What we can infer from this is the stabilisation in global demand will only be reflected in Malaysia's export performance in the third quarter,' he added.

The trade ministry said the steep decline in exports was mostly due to lower demand from key trading partners, especially for electrical and electronic products which account for one-third of Malaysia's total exports.

Malaysia's key exports markets are Singapore, China, Japan, Thailand and the United States. In April, Malaysian exports fell 26.3 per cent.

The government has said the export-dependent economy is likely to contract by 4.0-5.0 per cent this year due to the drop-off in exports and manufacturing.

Foreign investment has also seen a big dip this year. Trade Minister Mustapa Mohamed said on Thursday that foreign direct investment for the first five months stood at RM4.2 billion compared to RM46 billion in 2008. – AFP


Economists see further fall in Malaysia’s exports
By FINTAN NG

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s exports continued to contract year-on-year in May as the bottoming-out process worked its way through the global economy.

A Bloomberg poll of 12 economists saw exports contracting 28.2% year-on-year in May (April: minus 26.3%), imports falling 23.2% (April: minus 22.4%) and the trade balance rising to RM8.8bil (April: RM7.4bil).

The Statistics Department is expected to release the external trade figures tomorrow.
Economists are still cautious of the landscape although there are signs that things are looking better ahead with China’s purchasing managers’ index expanding for a fourth month in June and consumer confidence in Britain and the euro-zone rising.

However, a gauge of US consumer confidence dropped in May while Japan’s Tankan business survey showed confidence among the country’s manufacturers was still down in June as factories remained under-utilised.

The economists said the key driver remained government stimulus measures to boost domestic demand as there was no recovery in exernal demand.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd treasury research and strategy head Selena Ling said global demand, especially from the G3 countries (the United States, Japan and the 25 members of the European Union) remained “very weak”.

“In Malaysia’s case, we see continued weakness in the electrical and electronics (E&E) segment of manufacturing, with revenue contribution to exports versus commodities continue falling,” she told StarBiz yesterday.

Ling said the conflicting data coming from various parts of the world was quite common at the inflection point.

“It’s a bottoming-out process, there will be stabilisation but there will not be real growth as most of it is coming through stimulus measures,” she said.

Forecast Pte Ltd economist Joanna Tan said there were still no blatant signs of demand recovery, with the global E&E sector still in contractionary mode although it was off its lows from the start of the year.

“Right now, it’s good to be cautious as there are no compelling signs the recovery is gaining momentum,” she said.

Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew said even if China were to recover, final demand still hinged on the G3 nations.

“However, countries such as Australia and Malaysia, with strong base in commodities, will benefit from China’s relatively stronger performance,” he said.
Liew said the liberalisation measures taken by Malaysia would help but benefits should be seen only in the long term.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced measures aimed at liberalising the capital markets, of which the dismantling of the 30% bumiputra equity policy was an important part.

United Overseas Bank Ltd economist Ho Woei Chen said the bullish stock markets and upturn in consumer sentiment signalled that the worst was over but a firm recovery in external demand had yet to happen.

“Most trade statistics in Asia remain weak and will likely be the case for the coming months until we see US consumers spending again,” she said.
HSBC Holdings plc senior Asia economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said the data in recent months were not quite as bad.

“The Tankan survey showed a drop in business confidence but capital investment has improved quite a lot,” he said.

Prior-Wandesforde added that China was clearly at the forefront of the global recovery. Although its exports had fallen, fixed investment was up more than 40% year-on-year while industrial output had also improved, he said.

He said the leading indicators had shown for some time that things were starting to improve. “We believe the worst is over, with industrial output in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore rising more than 20% from the lows.”

US electronics makers in Malaysia see higher exports
By Rupa Damodaranrupabanerji@nstp.com.my2009/07/04

US electronics manufacturers in Malaysia expect exports to rise by 15-20 per cent in the second quarter of this year, over the previous quarter.

In the third quarter, their export sales are expected to expand by another 10 per cent."The increase in manufacturing output for our members in the second quarter was due to worldwide consolidation activities which we have benefited from as well as inventory correction," Malaysian American Electronics Industry (MAEI) chairman Datuk Wong Siew Hai told a media briefing in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

He attributed the increase to the stimulus packages implemented by governments from around the world, especially Asia and in particular China.The improved activities also reflected US businesses' confidence in Malaysia, and its competitiveness in the semiconductor industry.

However, hiring continued to be limited in the second quarter of 2009, with most companies preferring to use contract workers as they remain cautious about their sales outlook for the year."Total export sales forecast (for 2009) is RM54.6 billion, a 27.5 per cent decrease from 2008, which is in line with the forecasts of industry sales contraction by various research houses," said Wong.

Total export sales for MAEI members reached RM75.3 billion last year, from RM73.8 billion in 2007.The semiconductor industry is expected to recover in the first half of 2009, with potential growth in the first quarter of 2010, driven by demand for electronic products, namely laptops, digital consumer electronics as well as mobile devices.

The Semiconductor Industrial Association had forecast in June that the global semiconductor industry market is expected to contract by 21.6 per cent this year.MAEI comprises 17 companies in the semiconductor and non-semiconductor industries. The industry group contributed to 29.5 per cent of the country's total electrical and electronics (E&E) exports last year.

Wong said Malaysia has benefited from the economic crisis as some firms have reported additional responsibilities in areas such as design and development (D&D), procurement, financial services, IT and HR shared services.These companies spent RM1.1 billion last year, and are expected to spend another RM960.3 million in 2009.The industry group also lauds the government's move to deregulate the Foreign Investment Committee, saying it will benefit foreign small- and medium-sized enterprises in the E&E industry.