Malaysia sees exports rebound by year-endSINGAPORE
Malaysia expects its exports to rebound by the end of the year, fueling economic growth in 2010 after a severe recession, the trade minister said Thursday.
"We think by year end export prospects will improve as a result of early signs of recovery in America and China," International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed told reporters. "This will hopefully pull us out."
"The last five or six months, we've gone through a very difficult period."
Malaysia, where total trade accounts for more than twice the nation's gross domestic product, said Wednesday that exports fell 23 percent in June from a year earlier. The government expects GDP to shrink up to 5 percent this year, and is calculating next year's growth target, Mustapa said.
Exports in June rose a seasonally adjusted 5.1 percent from May, and Mustapa said there was some evidence of a pickup in demand for electronics exports.
Mustapa said the government is mulling ways to boost domestic consumption to ease the economy's dependence on exports.
"It's impossible for us to get out completely from our dependence on trade," Mustapa said. "But what we were working toward is increasing the role of domestic sources of growth."
"We have to innovate, be creative, and be more productive."
Malaysia's exports slump 22.6 pct in JuneMalaysia's exports, the mainstay of the economy, fell 22.6 percent year on year in June, official data showed Wednesday.
The trade ministry said in a statement that shipments slumped to 45.1 billion ringgit (12.9 billion dollars) year-on-year while imports fell 20.8 percent to 35.99 billion ringgit.
Total trade from January to June was worth 250.53 billion ringgit, a decrease of 23.4 percent from a year ago, but Malaysia did manage to record a trade surplus of 59.23 billion ringgit in that period.
However, the latest exports figures showed a recovery from April's 26.3 percent fall and the 29.7 percent dive recorded in May, which was the lowest since 2001.
"Manufactured exports in June 2009 increased by 2.5 percent compared with the preceding month," the ministry said in the statement.
"This was due mainly to higher exports of electrical and electronic products, machinery, appliances and parts, optical and scientific equipment, chemicals and chemical products as well as manufactures of metal," it added.
Electrical and electronic products account for one-third of Malaysia's total exports to key markets in China, Japan, Thailand, Europe and the United States.
The government has said the export-dependent economy is likely to contract by 4.0-5.0 percent this year due to the drop-off in exports and manufacturing caused by the global economic slump.
Foreign investment has also seen a big dip this year, with foreign direct investment for the first five months stood at 4.2 billion ringgit compared to 46 billion ringgit in 2008.
Malaysia's June exports fall but recovery expected
(KUALA LUMPUR) Malaysia's June exports fell by 22.6 per cent from a year ago, although a 5.1 per cent increase from May, on a seasonally unadjusted basis, showed a recovery was taking place in Asia's third most trade-dependent country, economists said.
Exports to US and China were up 1.1 per cent and 5.4 per cent from May, respectively, and exports to Asean were up 4.8 per cent, according to data released by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry yesterday.
Overall, exports fell to RM45.1 billion (S$18.5 billion) in June from RM58.3 billion a year ago but the data released was also the country's highest monthly export value in 2009.
Electronics exports, which make up 41.2 per cent of Malaysia's exports, were up 4.47 per cent from May but fell 17 per cent from a year earlier.
'The results came in pretty close to what we were expecting, showing a continuing upward trajectory after bottoming out in the first quarter. That is more or less in line with data from around the world following the collapse in global trade,' said Action Economics economist, David Cohen.
'Malaysia should continue to see encouraging exports performance in the coming months as the global electronics demand makes progress and global recovery stokes commodities demand,' said Forecast Pte Ltd economist, Joanna Tan.
Malaysia's June imports fell 20.8 per cent from a year earlier to RM36 billion, and that was less than forecasts for a 25.9 per cent decline. Imports are seen as a leading indicator of a potential export recovery as increasing confidence by exporters based here would lead to a rise in raw materials and semi-manufactured imports.
Malaysia posted a trade surplus of RM9.12 billion against economists' projection of RM9.9 billion in the Reuters poll. -- Reuters
KUALA LUMPUR, August 5 (Reuters) - Malaysia's exports in June fell by 22.6 percent from a year ago marking a 5.1 pct increase from May on an unadjusted basis with export numbers to key trading partners showing signs of recovery were taking place.
Exports to US and China were up 1.1 percent and 5.4 percent from May whereas exports to Asean were up 4.8 percent. Exports to Japan however surged 25.7 percent from May. Overall, exports fell to 45.1 billion ringgit in June on an annual basis but was also the country's highest monthly export value in 2009, the government said.
JOANNA TAN, ECONOMIST, FORECAST PTE LTD
'The better than expected pace in June exports was primarily led by recovering electronics and electrical goods and palm oil. Malaysia should continue to see encouraging export performance in the coming months as the global electronics demand makes progress and global recovery stokes commodities demand.'
MANOKARAN MOTTAIN, SENIOR ECONOMIST WITH AMRESEARCH.
'Because of the base factor, we will see export numbers volatile and in the negative territory. But on a month-on-month basis I'm expecting a strong rebound. Regional demand is improving, in countries such as China and Singapore, and global demand is stabilising.'
Malaysia's June exports down 22.6%
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s June exports of RM45.1bil, which was the highest monthly export value registered this year, was 22.6% down year-on-year, according to the International Trade and Industry Ministry. This was lower than the median forecast of 25% from Bloomberg’s survey of 17 economists.
Imports dropped 20.8% to RM35.99bil while trade surplus stood at RM9.12bil. Total trade declined 21.8% to RM81.09bil in June versus a year ago.
Month-on-month, exports increased 5.1% due to higher manufactured exports such as electrical and electronic (E&E) products, machinery, appliances and parts, while imports rose 9.4%.
The country’s major exports in June included E&E products valued at RM18.59bil or 41.2% of total exports, palm oil worth RM3.65bil or 8.1% and chemicals and chemical products of RM2.8bil or 6.2%.
During the first six months of the year, exports decreased 23.4% to RM250.53bil compared with the same period last year while imports were lower by 26.3% to RM191.3bil.
E&E, gas sales help cushion decline in June exports
By Hamisah Hamidhamisahhamid@nstp.com.my2009/08/06MALAYSIA'S exports fell at a slower rate in June, helped by a slower deceleration in the exports of electronic and electrical (E&E) products and a rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.Exports in June fell 22.6 per cent year-on-year, beating a 25.47 per cent contraction forecast in the Business Times poll.
Together, E&E and LNG accounted for 46.2 per cent of the overall exports.Imports also dropped 20.8 per cent from the same month a year ago, while total trade shrank by 21.8 per cent to RM81.09 billion.The International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) said month-on-month, exports rose 5.1 per cent in June to RM45.1 billion from May, while imports rose 9.4 per cent to RM35.99 billion.Economists said the decline in the country's exports is easing, but improvement is likely to be gradual because exports still register a sharp drop year-on-year.
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The month-on-month trend shows that the contraction in global demand is stabilising, but we are not expecting a V-shape recovery in exports because major developed economies are still in recession in the first half of the year," RAM chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng told Business Times yesterday."Some are projecting a recovery or slight growth in the US economy in the third quarter, but not a robust recovery," he added.
Yeah said at a 20 per cent contraction, Malaysia's exports are still better than other Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan and China, whose exports have shrunk between 30 per cent and 40 per cent since the onset of the global financial crisis.
MIDF Research head Zulkifli Hamzah said the month-on-month recovery in exports was in line with regional trend, driven by intra-Asian trade."The Western economies of US and Europe are still weighed down by weak demand and overcapacity.
As Malaysia is an open economy, a meaningful recovery needs to have the participation of the US and Europe," he said.Zulkifli said while Asia has the capacity to drive demand, probably until the end of the year, the momentum must be supported by the Western economies. Otherwise, the recovery would not be sustainable.
