Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Trade-Budget 2010

Malaysia Budget 2010 Highlights2009/10/23

2010 BUDGET BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
* Malaysia economy to grow 2-3 per cent in 2010
* Mining to grow 1.1 per cent, manufacturing sector 1.7 per cent, agriculture 2.5 per cent, construction 3.2 per cent and service 3.6 per cent.
* Private consumption expand 2.9 per cent while private investment 3.4 per cent
* Per capita income to increase by 2.5 per cent to RM24,661
* TNB to spend RM5 billion to implement electricity generation, transmission and distribution projects in 2010.
* Individual tax relief on broadband subscription fee up to RM500 a year from 2010 to 2012.
* Public-private collaborations to include an integrated immigration, customs and quarantine complex in Bukit Kayu Hitam, construction of six UiTM campuses and the development of MATRADE centre
* 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) will establish a corporate social responsibility fund totalling RM100 million as a start to finance community activities
* Government to allocate RM899 million to intensify tourism industry.
* Government to enhance tax incentives for healthcare service providers who offer services to foreign health tourists with income tax exemptions of 100 per cent on the value of increased exports from 50 per cent previously.
* Individual taxpayers to be given tax relief on broadband subscription fee up to RM500 a year from 2010 to 2012
* Civil servants are eligible to apply for computer loans once in every three years and up to a maximum of RM5,000 from the government once in every five years
* Formulate Halal Act in collaboration with State Islamic Religious Councils.
* To corporatise the Halal Industry Development Corporation as an agency under MITI* Intensify Halal Certification by the Islamic Development Department of Malaysia (JAKIM) by collaborating with international institutions to obtain standards certification such as HACCP ad GMP.
* To provide RM24 million to develop halal products anti-smuggling system at three entry points and three main ports.
* Allocate RM137 million to upgrade and improve drainage and irrigation infrastructures in paddy fields involving 180,000 farmers.
* To provide RM70 million to build the Paya Peda Dam Project in Terengganu to increase water supply capacity to paddy irrigation scheme in Besut.
* Allocate RM82 million to modernise aquaculture industry and conduct entrepreneurship training scheme for aquaculture breeders with focus on production of fish fry and ornamental fish.
* “The stock market will be further liberalised to enhance its efficiency as well as attract domestic and foreign investment. For this purpose, the government will undertake the following measures: First, liberalise the commission sharing arrangements between stockbrokers and remisiers in 2 stages to encrouage retail participation in the stock market. The first stage, which takes effect immediately, allows flexible brokerage sharing at a minimum rate of 40 percent for remisiers. The commission sharing will be fully liberalised in the second stage, effective 1 January 2011.
* “Allow 100 per cent foreign equity participation in corporate finance and financial planning companies compared with the present requirement of at least 30 per cent local shareholding.
* “Islamic banking assets account for 18.8 per cent of Malaysia’s total banking assets while takaful industry assets contribute 7.7 per cent of total insurance and takaful industry assets. To ensure rapid development of financial services, particulalrly in Islmaic finance, the government proposes that the existing tax incentives be extended to 2015.
* “The government is currently at the final stage of completing the study on the implementation of goods and services tax (GST), particularly to identify the social impact of GST on the people. The purpose of this study is to ensure that if GST needs to be implemented to stabilised Government finance, it will not burden the population. “If the government implements GST, it will replace the current sales tax and service tax as well as exemption will be granted to the low income group. The GST rate to be imposed will be lower than the current sales tax and service tax rates.
* “The government needs to ensure that the Malaysian tax system is equitable and able to generate revenue for development purposes. In line with this, the government proposes that a tax of five per cent be imposed on gains from the disposal of real property from 1 January 2010. * Effective Jan 1 2010, government agrees to allow agencies to retain 50 per cent of rentals received while the remaining 50 per cent will be remitted to the government as revenue.
* The Government will implement fuel subsidy management system in early 2010.
* The Government proposes the maximum income tax rate to be further reduced to 26 per cent from 27 per cent effective from the 2010 year of assessment.
* Maximum tax rate for cooperatives will be reduced to 26 per cent while the fixed tax rate for non-resident individuals will be cut to 26 per cent.
* Personal tax relief will be increased to RM9,000 from RM8,000 effective from the 2010 year of assessment.* The Government also proposes income tax on employment income of Malaysians and foreign knowledge workers residing and working in Iskandar Malaysia be imposed at 15 per cent compared with the maximum 26 per cent for the rest of the country.
* Government to launch a scheme in January 2010 that enables EPF contributors to utilise current and future savings in Account 2 to promote house ownership.
* RM14.8 billion is allocated to manage, build and upgrade hospitals and clinics.
* The Government will issue 1Malaysia Sukuk totalling RM3 billion.
* The Government will establish the 1Malaysia Retirement Scheme to be administrated by EPF.
* Employees EPF contributions will be raised again to 11 per cent on a voluntary basis with immediate effect. However, from Jan 1, 2011 employees' EPF contribution will revert to 11 per cent.
* The Government proposes existing personal tax relief of RM6,000 for EPF contributions and life insurance premiums be raised to RM7,000.
* Government allocates RM2.3 billion to build and upgrade infrastructures in rural areas.
* Government provides RM41 million to improve income and quality of life of the Orang Asli Community by implementing various projects.
* Budget 2010 allocations totalled RM191.5 billion, of which RM138.3 billion is for operating expenditure and RM53.2 billion for development expenditure.
* Federal Government revenue in 2010 to decline by 8.4 per cent to RM148.8 billion.
* Budget deficit at 5.6 per cent of GDP compared with 7.4 per cent in 2009. - Bernama/Reuters

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Malaysia's Trade August 2009

Malaysia’s August exports down 19.8 per cent versus a year ago
Thursday October 08 2009

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 8 — Malaysia’s exports in August fell by a larger-than-expected 19.8 per cent from a year ago, government data showed today. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall of 17.4 per cent.

“While the global electronics sector is showing recovery signals, a rebound could very well be built on short-term foundations of inventory restocking. We remain conservative in our exports outlook and the latest trade data further affirms that.

"Month-on-month figures saw some correction from the previous positive pace. On monetary policy, Bank Negara is likely to keep to the status quo in the near term given the stage of economic recovery,” said Joanna Tan, an economist with Forecast Pte Ltd.

“While the fall in export value of commodities continued to be the main drag on Malaysian exports, electronics exports should also continue to be lackluster,” said Alvin Liew of Standard Chartered.

“While the export decline is likely to continue easing in late 2009, Malaysia’s manufacturing sector may not be out of the woods yet, especially if the global recovery is prolonged and shallow. A more worrying aspect of sharply declining imports is that they imply that companies may be delaying capital investments.

"This would reduce the capacity of Malaysia’s manufacturing sector in the medium and long term, preventing it from reaping the benefits of an eventual recovery in demand,” he added.
Irvin Seah of DBS said, “I think this is certainly a disappointment and a sober reminder that the path of recovery is never a smooth one and it will be bumpy. Going forward, as long as the longer term trend is upward then there shouldn’t be a big concern.” — Reuters

2009-10-08 10:30 (UTC)

Malaysian August exports disappoint
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Malaysia's exports in August

fell by a larger-than-expected 19.8 percent from a year ago, government data showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall of 17.4 percent.

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ANALYST COMMENTS

ALVIN LIEW, ECONOMIST, STANDARD CHARTERED

'While the fall in export value of commodities continued to be the main drag on Malaysian exports, electronics exports should also continue to be lacklustre. 'While the export decline is likely to continue easing in late 2009, Malaysia's manufacturing sector may not be out of the woods yet, especially if the global recovery is prolonged and shallow. A more worrying aspect of sharply declining imports is that they imply that companies may be delaying capital investments. This would reduce the capacity of Malaysia's manufacturing sector in the medium and long term, preventing it
from reaping the benefits of an eventual recovery in demand.'


IRVIN SEAH, ECONOMIST, DBS:

'I think this is certainly a disappointment and a sober reminder that the path of recovery is never a smooth one and it will be bumpy. Going forward, as long as the longer term trend is upward then there shouldn't be a big concern.'


(Reporting by Royce Cheah and Liau Y-Sing)
Malaysia annual export growth slows in August -UPDATE 1-10.08.08, 4:35 AM ET Thomson Financial News

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Malaysia's annual export growth slowed more than expected in August, dragged down by electronics and commodities, reflecting problems plaguing Asian economies from the global financial crisis.

Total exports rose 10.6 percent from a year ago, a sharp slowdown from 25.4 percent in July's data and below expectations for a 16.5 percent increase, trade ministry figures showed.
That left exports at 59.58 billion ringgit ($17.07 billion), down from 63.31 billion ringgit in July.
'(It was) Very much in line with what we see throughout the entire region; the global slowdown, which has become particularly pronounced over recent months, is clearly adversely impacting export-dependent Asian economies,' said Dwyfor Evans, economist at State Street Bank and Trust Co.

Earlier leading investment bank CIMB slashed its 2009 growth outlook for Malaysia by 2 percentage points to 3 percent, due to falling crude oil and commodity prices as well as the U.S. economic downturn.

The trade figures showed exports to the United States fell 15 percent from a year ago while electronics exports, which account for almost 40 percent of Malaysia's exports, fell by 1.3 percent to 23.65 billion ringgit.

Malaysia's trade surplus was 12.65 billion ringgit slightly lower than the market forecast of 13.1 billion ringgit.

Another of Malaysia's key exports, palm oil, rose 40.6 percent in August from a year ago but fell 15 percent from July to 4.54 billion ringgit as prices declined.
'Softer commodities exports were probably part of the drag on the export figure after propping up Malaysian exports for the past year. The fall in commodity prices in the middle of this year is one more headwind that Malaysian exporters will not be enjoying,' David Cohen, economist at Action Economics said.

OUTLOOK WORSENING
There were signs of Malaysia's domestic economic slowdown as imports grew by a lower-than-expected 4.2 percent to 46.93 ringgit, while analysts had forecast double-digit growth of 10 percent.
CIMB economist Lee Heng Guie said in a research note that Malaysia's growth would be pressured by the current financial turmoil and relatively high inflation, 'but will likely escape a deep economic downturn given the much stronger economic and financial fundamentals.'
He sees growth of 5.3 percent this year dropping to 3.0 percent in 2009.
($1=3.490 Malaysian Ringgit)
(Reporting by Varsha Tickoo; Editing by Kazunori Takada)


August exports down but recovery momentum intactBy Hamisah Hamid hamisahhamid@nstp.com.my2009/10/09

MALAYSIA'S exports in August fell 19.8 per cent from a year ago, which is worse than expected, but economists said the recovery momentum is intact.A Business Times poll had expected August exports to fall 16.5 per cent."The lower exports in August was in line with regional economies. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore all had a relapse in August after growing strongly for a few consecutive months," MIDF Research head Zulkifli Hamzah said. Zulkifli said the slowdown in the exports of electrical and electronic goods (E&E) to the US and Europe was probably due to inventory adjustment as orders had been ramped up a few months before August. "The recovery process is intact and Malaysia's gross domestic product is on track to grow again in the fourth quarter 2009," he added.On a month-on-month basis, August exports were down 2 per cent from July while imports also shed 6.6 per cent, resulting in total trade falling 4.1 per cent to RM38.26 billion.The slight fall in August exports was mainly due to the drop in exports of machinery, appliances and parts, jewelry, transport equipment, wood products, iron and steel products and E&E.However, trade surplus in August, at RM9.57 billion, is higher than economists' expectation of about RM8.85 billion.

The International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) said total trade for the first eight months contracted 23.3 per cent from the same period last year, to RM617.65 billion. During the period, exports shed 22.8 per cent while imports were down by 23.9 per cent, resulting in trade surplus of RM76.65 billion.RAM chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said August figures reflect a gradual recovery of the country's exports, which is in line with the stabilisation of global demand."Although the improvement is gradual, it signifies that the worst of export slump is behind us." Yeah also expects that the gradual improvement would show a positive year-on-year export growth in December as the exports in December last year was quite low.



Malaysia's exports slump 19.8% in August

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's exports, the mainstay of the economy, plunged 19.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, according to official data Thursday. The trade ministry said in a statement that exports fell to 47.83 billion ringgit (US$14 billion) year-on-year while imports dropped 18.6 per cent to 38.26 billion ringgit, producing a trade surplus of 9.57 billion ringgit. Total trade from January to August was worth 617.65 billion ringgit, a decrease of 23.3 per cent from a year earlier. The ministry said the decline year-on-year was due to lower demand among key trading partners, particularly for iron and steel products as well as electrical and electronic items, which account for one-third of Malaysia's total exports. Malaysia's key export markets are Singapore, China, Japan, Hong Kong and the United States. In July, Malaysian exports fell 22.9 per cent on revised figures. The government has said the export-dependent economy is likely to contract by 4.0-5.0 per cent this year due to the drop-off in exports and manufacturing. In August, the central bank announced that the economy shrank 3.9 per cent in the three months to June year-on-year, in an improved performance from the 6.2 per cent contraction seen in the first quarter. Prime Minister Najib Razak has said the economy had "turned around a corner" and was on track for a recovery despite a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. - AFP/yb


Malaysia trade surplus RM9.57b in August2009/10/08

MALAYSIA recorded a trade surplus of RM9.57 million in August 2009, an increase of 22 percent from a month ago, making it the 142nd consecutive month of surplus since November 1997.In a statement here today, the Statistics Department said total trade in August, however, fell by 4.1 per cent from a month ago to RM86.09 billion.

It said the country's exports decreased by two percent to RM47.83 billion in August compared with July, while imports dropped by 6.6 per cent to RM38.26 billion."The export value in August was the second highest recorded in the first eight months of 2009 despite the decline," it said.The department said during the first eight months of the year, Malaysia's total trade was valued at RM617.65 billion, 23.3 percent lower from the corresponding period of 2008.During the same period, exports fell by 22.8 per cent to RM347.15 billion compared with the same period last year while imports for the period was down by 23.9 per cent to RM270.5 billion.

This resulted in a trade surplus of RM76.65 billion.In August, manufactured exports decreased by 2.1 percent compared with the preceding month, due to the drop in exports of machinery, appliances and parts, jewellery, transport equipment, wood products, iron and steel products as well as electrical and electronic (E&E) products.China, Singapore, US, Japan and Hong Kong were the top five export destinations, accounting for 53.3 per cent of country's total exports in August 2009.

Exports to China rose by 10.3 per cent to RM6.55 billion from July 2009 due to higher exports of crude petroleum and E&E products. Exports in August this year were higher by 0.9 per cent from a year ago.The department said exports to Asean countries dropped to RM12.29 billion from RM12.85 billion a month ago. This accounted for 25.7 per cent of Malaysia's total exports.Year-on-year, exports to Asean fell by 24.4 per cent, mainly due to lower exports of refined petroleum products, E&E products and transport equipment.

Imports decreased by 18.6 per cent to RM38.26 billion in August from a year ago due mainly to the decline in imports of intermediate goods.At the same time, total imports from Asean amounted to RM9.74 billion, or 25.5 per cent, of Malaysia's total imports.As for January-August 2009, the top five export destinations were Singapore (RM47.98 billion), China (RM40.14 billion), US (RM38.94 billion), Japan (RM34.48 billion) and Thailand (RM18.57 billion).Meanwhile, total exports to Asean were valued at RM89.32 billion, or 25.7 per cent, of Malaysia's total exports during the eight-month period. -- BERNAMA

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Malaysia' trade ..Aug 2009

Wednesday October 7, 2009
Economists still cautious on external trade
By FINTAN NG

PETALING JAYA: Economists remain cautious on Malaysia’s external trade position as restocking continues to be a factor in boosting exports from the country and elsewhere in the region, despite the more positive economic data streaming in from abroad.

Prominent economists Nouriel Roubini and Joseph Stiglitz have in recent days expressed doubt over the sustainability of a faster and more durable global economic recovery.
Furthermore, the US jobless rate in September rose to a 26-year high.

The Statistics Department is expected to release external trade data tomorrow.
Citigroup Inc senior economist Kit Wei Zheng expects improvement in both month-on-month and year-on-year external trade figures for Malaysia.

However, he told StarBiz that the country continued to be a “big laggard” where electrical and electronics (E&E) exports were concerned, compared with Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, due mainly to supply bottleneck issues that were only now being addressed. E&E products constitute 40% of Malaysia’s exports.

“There’s still some scope for cyclical catch-up to the end of the year and orders have been coming back since late June which, in turn, has given a boost to factory production and exports,” Kit said.

He said the domestic front would play a much bigger role in the country’s economic growth, going forward, with RM4bil to RM5bil already spent in the quarter ended September, mostly in the construction sector.

“This spending added another 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points to gross domestic product growth,” Kit noted.

Both United Overseas Bank Ltd economist Ho Woei Chen and Forecast Pte Ltd economist Joanna Tan said exports could turn positive in the last two months of the year.
But Ho said the improvement in factory output in recent months was largely due to inventory rebuilding.

Tan said the verdict was still out on the sustainability of the rebound, especially in the global E&E sector.

“The rebound could be due to inventory restocking, so we’re still quite cautious,” she said.



Focus on domestic consumption without neglecting world tradeBy Azlan Abu Bakaralan@nstp.com.my2009/10/07

The government wants domestic consumption to drive Malaysia's economic recovery but will not neglect international trade, a minister said yesterday.

Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said measures to increase domestic consumption will be among those to be highlighted in Budget 2010, which will be tabled in Parliament on October 23."We are not saying international trade is not important. In fact, it has grown by more than 200 per cent against our gross domestic product (GDP)," he said, noting that the economic environment is significantly better compared with the first half of 2009.

Nor Mohamed said the government at the same time prefers to increase domestic sources of growth, with contribution from private consumption and private investment to spur the local economy.

He said Malaysia's new economic model will see a reduction in dependence on trade because of its vagaries

.Nor Mohamed said as an open economy, the country is vulnerable to changes in external demand like what is seen now amid the global economic slowdown.

"We want to see domestic demand spur significantly and be our most important economic driver," he told reporters after attending the Statistics Department's Hari Raya Open House in Putrajaya yesterday.

Nor Mohamed noted the government's pump-priming efforts will continue to support growth.The indication is that the public sector's deficit spending will remain a feature of the local economy throughout the 10th Malaysia Plan from 2011-2015.He said as part of efforts to further grow the local economy, the government is looking for a formula how to increase consumer spending.

"It is the government's aspiration to ensure the people are able to enjoy a higher salary, thus help grow the economy."We are looking for a suitable formula as we don't want to chase investors away thinking Malaysia being expensive," he said.The formula will focus more on increasing productivity based on a knowledge-based economy, research and development, and innovation