Malaysia exports up 7.1% in July
(AFP) – 1 hour ago
KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia said its exports, the mainstay of the country's economy, increased 7.1 percent year-on-year in July, easing from the previous month as the global economy slows down.
The trade ministry on Friday said exports grew to 59.24 billion ringgit ($19.80 billion) while imports reached 49.79 billion ringgit, up 2.9 percent year on year.
The export growth was led by higher shipments of palm oil, liquefied natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, which accounted for more than one-fifth of all exports.
The pace of exports was slower than June's 8.6 percent year-on-year increase and down from the 13.5 percent growth seen in July 2010.
Yeah Kim Leng, group chief economist with financial firm RAM Holdings, called July's export performance "moderate, within expectation" as Europe and the United States struggle with debt crises and Japan recovers from its earthquake and tsunami disasters.
"The gradual pace is reflective of the turbulence of the global economy," he told AFP. "Of course there will be a couple of months that will be turbulent, where uncertainty persists."
Total trade in the January-July period stood at 724.09 billion ringgit, up 7.7 percent from the same period last year, while exports increased 6.9 percent over the seven-month period.
The top five export destinations in July were China, Singapore, Japan, the Unite States and Thailand.
Exports to the United States declined by 14.9 percent to 4.77 billion ringgit in July due partly to lower shipments of electrical and electronic products, a key export to that market.
Last month, the central bank announced Malaysia's economy grew 4.0 percent in the second quarter, its slowest pace in nearly two years, on softening global export demand and a moderation in public sector spending.
It has forecast full-year growth of between five and six percent.
Although hit hard by the global slowdown, Southeast Asia's third-largest economy rebounded with an impressive 7.2 percent growth in 2010.
Since taking power in 2009 premier Najib Razak has unveiled a series of measures to stimulate the economy, including promises of major infrastructure projects and financial market liberalisation.
Malaysia July exports to ease on slower electronics demand
By Rupa Damodaran
rupabanerji@nstp.com.my
2011/09/08
KUALA LUMPUR: The growth of Malaysia's exports is due to ease in July, in line with slower global demand for electronics.
Economists polled by Business Times have differing views on the growth pace from June's 8.6 per cent, as some think that strong commodity exports could cushion weaker electronics shipments.
Exports are expected to grow by an average of 6.58 per cent year-on-year, imports by 5.93 per cent year-on-year and the trade balance to average RM7.74 billion.
The International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) will announce the details today. Gundy Cahyadi of OCBC Bank thinks it is unlikely that export growth would be better than June.
"With slowing global growth momentum, we now expect to see soft figures for the rest of the year, although the July export data from the region has been somewhat modest."
The August-October export growth figures may be crucial for a better feel of Malaysia's overall expansion in 2011, he added.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said electronic exports are likely to contract for the 11th straight month.
Kit Wei Zheng of Citi agreed, saying the E&E (electric & electronics) sector will remain soft given the continued cyclical slowdown in electronics, though supply disruption from the Japan earthquake have begun to wane.
"China registered a surge in imports from Malaysia though exports to Singapore could provide a drag as Singapore registered sharply slower imports from Malaysia."
Commodity exports are expected to continue to provide the lift as shown by the combined value of palm oil and palm kernel oil exports which jumped 56.3 per cent year-on-year in July after surging 51.9 per cent in June.
Irvin Seah of DBS Bank expects a fairly healthy expansion.
"Yet, downside risks remain considering the high base last year, the currency appreciation and the weakness in global demand.
"This is particularly true for key electronics exports, which is expected to languish given weak demand."
Seah said much depends on how the economic situation pans out in developed economies in the coming months. Hope is also pinned on Japan's reconstruction effort and resilient demand in Asia.
"Festive season demand towards the end of the year could also provide additional boost."
Business
7-8pc trade growth expected, says Mustapa
By Lee Wei Lian
Sep 09, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 9 — Malaysia’s total trade is expected to grow between seven and eight per cent this year said Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed today.
The Minister of International Trade and Industry added however that if the global economy improved the country could achieve a higher trade growth rate.
Malaysia’s trade growth in the first seven months of this year was 7.7 per cent with import growth outpacing export growth 8.7 per cent to 6.9 per cent.
“We are confident to achieve 7-8 per cent growth based on the first seven months of this year,” said Mustapa . “Although US and Europe are facing uncertainty, Malaysia is doing reasonably well.”
Trade grew fastest with India at 37.8 per cent, followed by Japan at 18 per cent and Germany at 16.9 per cent.
China was the largest export destination absorbing 12.8 per cent of Malaysia’s exports, followed by Singapore at 12.7 per cent and Japan at 11.1 per cent.
Exports of manufactured goods rose 0.4 per cent while mining exports rose 17.3 per cent and agricultural exports rose 35.2 per cent.
TheEdge_Malaysian trade still resilient, says Mustapa
Written by Tashny Sukumaran of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 09 September 2011 12:41
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's trade performance from January to July continued to maintain a good trajectory, with trade expanding by 7.7% to RM724.09 billion compared with a year ago, said Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed.
Trade data for January to July showed a 6.9% growth in exports and 8.7% growth in imports on-year. Total exports increased to RM396.35 billion while imports expanded to RM327.75 billion, he said.
"We have done reasonably well, but not as well as 2010," said Mustapa, adding that the country's resilient trade performance was due to Malaysia's diversified markets and broad product base.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, Sept 9, Mustapa said that there was good export growth in all major markets except for Hong Kong and the US, attributing it to a lower rate of electrical and electronic equipment exports.
Looking forward, the government expects Malaysia's trade to grow but at a slower rate than the one recorded in 2010, he said.
"We are confident of achieving a 7% to 8% growth rate, but are unlikely to achieve figures like 10%. It is doable, but requires that the world economy improves,” he said.
Mustapa said the numbers reached were consistent with import figures, and due to consistent trade with Asia and Asean nations and a diverse product base, Malaysia would continue to perform resiliently.
Large regional economies such as China, India and Indonesia were expected to not only provide markets for the nation's exports, but also serve as a major source of investment, TECHNOLOGY [] and business partnership.
The nation recorded its 165th consecutive month of trade surplus in July, with exports and imports expanding at 7.1% and 2.9% compared with July last year. The main contributors to export growth are palm oil, liquid natural gas, chemicals and chemical products.
Other products supporting growth were crude petroleum, machinery, appliances and parts, and manufacturers of metal, rubber products, processed food and textiles and clothing.
Mustapa also said that the implementation of Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) projects would generate high value exports in the areas of E&E, oil and gas, medical products, engineering design, business services and creative content.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak had on Thursday said the combined value of the ETP initiatives was now RM171.21 billion in investment, with RM228.55 billion in contribution to the gross national income.
The second half of 2011 is expected to see better trade performance with the year-end festive seasons as retailers begin to restock and manufacturers start inventory preparation, said Mustapa.
The Star_Malaysia’s trade flourishes and hits RM724bil
Friday September 9, 2011
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia's trade continued to flourish, rising 7.7% year-on-year in the first seven months this year to a total RM724.09bil.
Exports climbed 6.9% to RM396.35bil from RM370.9bil a year earlier, while imports rose 8.7% to RM327.75bil from RM301.54bil.
In a statement issued by the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti), Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed noted that trade surplus stood at RM68.6bil.
Trade in July was up 5.1% year-on-year to RM109.04bil, and registered a surplus of RM9.45bil. Malaysia's trade has been in surplus since November 1997.
Exports in July increased 7.1% year-on-year to RM59.24bil while imports were 2.9% higher at RM49.79bil. Exports and imports in July 2010 were RM55.33bil and RM48.39bil, respectively.
Miti said the July exports mainly comprised electrical and electronics products, valued at RM20.62bil, while palm oil shipments were at RM6.02bil.
Other major exports included liquefied natural gas, chemical products, crude petroleum, refined petroleum products, machinery and appliances, metal products as well as optical and scientific equipment.
The biggest export markets for July were China and Singapore, which took in RM8.08bil and RM7.25bil worth of goods.
The other major export markets were Japan, the United States, Thailand, India, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Taiwan and the Netherlands.
Malaysia records RM9.45b trade surplus in July 2011
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/09/09/malaysia-records-rm9-45b-trade-surplus-in-july-2011/
September 9, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia recorded its 165th consecutive month of trade surplus in July 2011 of RM9.45 billion with export and import expanding at 7.1% and 2.9% respectively compared with July 2010.
In a statement today, International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed, said for July 2011, total trade grew by 5.1% to RM109.04 billion compared with a year ago.
Export for the month has registered RM59.24 billion while import grew to RM49.79 billion, he said.
On a month-to-month basis, export in July 2011 increased by 2.4% and import fell by 0.4%.
Palm oil, liquefied natural gas, chemical and chemical products were the main contributors to the export growth in July.
Mustapa said other products supporting the growth were crude petroluem, machinery, appliances and parts, manufactures of metal, rubber products, processed food, textiles and clothing.
He said Malaysia’s trade performance for the first seven months of the year continued to maintain a growth projectory with trade expanding by 7.7% to RM724.09 billion compared with the corresponding period in 2010.
“This was supported by a strong growth of 6.9% in export and 8.7% in imports,” he said.
Mustapa said total exports increased to RM396.35 billion while imports expanded to RM327bil
Malaysia's trade growth to moderate
2011/09/10
KUALA LUMPUR: External shocks from Europe's financial crisis and faltering US economy are expected to dampen Malaysia's trade momentum with growth anticipated to moderate between 7 and 8 per cent this year compared with 18.3 per cent recorded in 2010.
International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said if there were some improvement in the global economy, then a 10 to 11 per cent growth was doable.
"But, for that we got to work extra hard on trade promotions," he told reporters after announcing the country's trade perfor-mance for July.
Malaysia's trade performance for the first seven months of 2011 continued to maintain a growth projectory with total trade expanding 7.7 per cent to RM724.09 billion compared with the corresponding period in 2010.
Total trade last year was valued at RM1.169 trillion, an increase of 18.3 per cent, from RM988.24 billion registered in 2009 and 1.2 per cent lower compared with RM1.183 trillion recorded in 2008, the highest total trade ever transacted by the country.
"US remains the biggest economy in the world accounting for 20 per cent of global output, so what happens there has an impact on Malaysia and many other countries as we are trade-dependent countries," he said.
Malaysia's trade to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is more than 200 per cent.
"However, we have been fortunate as despite the fairly uncertain global environment, we have done reasonably well.
"Malaysia was able to cushion the impact due to its timely diversification.
"Asia is doing well. Asean, China and India would be key export destinations for the rest of this year," said the minister.
He said large regional economies such as China, India and Indonesia would not only provide markets for Malaysia's exports but also major source of investment, technology, and business partnership.
"With growing greenfield investments, it is expected that Malaysia's profile of exports, will undergo transformation towards high-tech and high value exports," he said.
Implementation of entry point projects under the government's transformation programme is expected to generate high value exports in the areas of electrical and electronics (E&E), oil and gas, medical products, engineering design, business services and creative content.
In the next few years, the profile of Malaysia's exports will be enriched to include more semiconductors, solar products, E&E machinery, energy saving devices, as well as medical equipment and devices. - Bernama
Saturday September 10, 2011
Higher manufacturing sales value
By JOHN LOH
johnloh@thestar.com.my
KUALA LUMPUR: The latest manufacturing sector figures released by the Statistics Department show the sales value expanding 10.8% in July to RM50.4bil from last year.
The five industries that supported this growth were refined petroleum products, semi-conductor devices, basic industrial chemicals, basic iron and steel, and rubber remilling and latex processing.
Both the number of employees and salaries paid in the manufacturing sector were down slightly month-on-month (m-o-m) by 0.3% and 2.1% respectively but rose year-on-year (y-o-y) by 3.4% and 9.6% respectively.
For the January-July period, the department said manufacturing sales value totalled RM341bil, higher by 10.8% from last year. The number of employees also rose 3.4% y-o-y to 1.02 million while productivity, as measured by average sales value per employee, climbed 7.2% y-o-y to RM334,414.
Meanwhile, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said during a briefing on the country's trade performance that Malaysia had weathered the current rough patch in the global economy relatively well.
“Despite the uncertainties in the United States and Europe, Malaysia has been quite resilient,” he said.
He forecast the trade growth to moderate to between 7% and 8% in 2011 from 10.8% in 2010. “We are confident about achieving a 7% to 8% trade growth this year. A 10% growth might be possible, but the world economy would have to bounce back first.”
Total trade for January to July stood at RM724.1bil, up 7.7% y-o-y while exports and imports grew 6.9% and 8.7% respectively to RM396.4bil and RM327.8bil.
Although exports to the United States dipped 4.7% m-o-m in July, indicative of the fragile economic situation there, Mustapa said Asia was expected to bolster demand for Malaysia's exports.
Mustapa said manufactured goods, which made up the bulk of Malaysia's exports at 68.3% for the period under review, grew the least compared with other sectors due to the slowdown in electric and electronic exports, which in turn contributed 50.5% to manufactured goods exports.
The slowdown was due to the relocation of manufacturing bases and shift in global supply chain for automatic data processing machines to lower cost producing countries.
Also, Malaysia has limited capacity to meet the current lucrative demand for feel-good gadgets such as mobile devices and communication equipment.
A more buoyant export sector was chemicals and chemical products, which grew 14.8% y-o-y to RM27bil. This was driven by accelerated demand in China, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Netherlands, owing to the rapid industrial and manufacturing development in those countries
Friday, September 9, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Malaysia's trade
Thursday September 8, 2011
M'sian banks see little impact on trade financing from US debt rating downgrade
By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.myPETALING JAYA: Trade financing business is expected to be impacted by the spiral effects of the foreseen slowdown in Malaysia's major exports, triggered by the recent US debt rating downgrade.
RHB Bank Bhd principal officer Renzo Viegas told StarBiz that within its existing customer base, the direct trade volume to the United States was marginal compared with the Asian region.
“But the greater concern is the indirect impact of trade within Asia which represents more than 80% of our trade volume concentration.
“As some components of the country's export to Asia are part of the supply chain for ultimate exports to the United States, we foresee the negative development in the US will have an impact on our trade with Asia. This probably will be seen in the latter part of the third quarter as consumer demand for the year-end sale is expected to be slower in the US and Western countries,” he said.
Meanwhile, OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Bhd head of global trade finance Thing Tock Kong said Malaysia's direct exports to the United States amounted to about 10% of its total exports.
“However, some of our exports to other countries do eventually end up in the United States, although with lagging effect. So, overall, in reality, more than 10% of our goods are being sold to the United States.
“So far, based on feedback from our clients, there has not been any cancellation or deferment of orders. Thus, we see the immediate impact as minimal.
“However, as an open economy, we would be affected if the crisis in the US were to prolong and become protracted, especially in the case of exports of certain consumer products. The severity of the impact will become clearer as the situation evolves,” he said.
Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias expects Asia's trade performance to be softer in the second half of this year.
“Considering that Malaysia's exposure to the global economy is considerable (exports represent 110% of gross domestic product), the export sector will likely be affected.
“Although Malaysia's exports to the United States have declined in terms of share of total trade, indirect exports (through Asean countries and China) to the United States as well as to other G3 countries are still very significant.
“As such, we are still very much dependent on the strength of G3 economies when it comes to external trade. If the demand from G3 wanes, Malaysia's export performance will also languish,” he said.
G3 nations comprise the United States, Japan and members of the eurozone.
Briefly, trade finance is needed when an exporter requires an importer to prepay for goods shipped. The importer's bank assists by providing a letter of credit to the exporter (or the exporter's bank) providing for payment upon presentation of certain documents, such as a bill of lading.
On the bright side, Viegas said Malaysia's trade with Asia as of June recorded growth of more than 15% year-on-year (y-o-y)and saw higher growth within Asean at 25%.
“Trade with Australia and New Zealand had also posted strong growth. Although the base is still small compared with trade with the West, it will help to cushion some of the impact on declining trade with the West. We still expect growth in trade with some of the Middle Eastern countries and the rebuilding of Japan will to a certain extent help boost the trade business.
“The expected faster pace of development of the Economic Transformation Programme projects next year will also help Malaysian's trade finance business to move in a positive direction,” he said.
Meanwhile, Thing said that Malaysia's exports to China, India and Asean countries stood at about 40% of the total.
“The growing population and wealth of these markets will continue to support our exports,” he said.
Viegas said that as of June this year, RHB's trade finance business, including Islamic trade financing, grew by more 11% y-o-y, which was above the industry's growth of about 9%.
Nevertheless, despite the downgrade in credit rating in August, the United States early this month released some positive economic data that indicated growth in consumption, where orders for cars were at their highest in eight years, and companies in the private sector continued to hire, adding some 90,000 new jobs in August.
Ringgit Little Changed Ahead of Export Data, Policy Rate Review
Malaysia’s ringgit was little changed as economists predicted the central bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at a review tomorrow as export growth likely slowed.
Overseas shipments rose 6.6 percent from a year earlier in July, after having increased 8.6 percent in June, according to the median forecast of analysts in a Bloomberg survey before official data due later this week. Bank Negara Malaysia will leave its benchmark overnight rate at 3 percent tomorrow, according to all 18 economists in a separate survey. The ringgit has dropped 0.4 percent this month on speculation Europe’s lingering debt crisis will damp demand for emerging-market assets.
“The unresolved crisis in Europe and expectations of slower domestic export growth are weighing on sentiment,” said Akira Banno, a treasury adviser in Kuala Lumpur at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Bhd. “The ringgit is trying to find a comfortable level to settle down.”
The ringgit held at 2.9830 per dollar as of 5:01 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There is now a new uncertainty about prospects for recovery and growth across the globe, partly because of the inability of the U.S., Europe and Japan to address their public debt and employment problems,” International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed told reporters in Kuala Lumpur today. This has “affected business and investors confidence around the globe. Our economic fundamentals are strong, healthy and resilient.”
Malaysia’s government bonds gained as a sale calendar shows the treasury will sell November 2016 Islamic notes later this month. The yield on the 4.262 percent securities due September 2016 declined one basis point, or 0.01 percent, at a record low 3.29 percent, according to Bursa Malaysia.
M'sian banks see little impact on trade financing from US debt rating downgrade
By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.myPETALING JAYA: Trade financing business is expected to be impacted by the spiral effects of the foreseen slowdown in Malaysia's major exports, triggered by the recent US debt rating downgrade.
RHB Bank Bhd principal officer Renzo Viegas told StarBiz that within its existing customer base, the direct trade volume to the United States was marginal compared with the Asian region.
“But the greater concern is the indirect impact of trade within Asia which represents more than 80% of our trade volume concentration.
“As some components of the country's export to Asia are part of the supply chain for ultimate exports to the United States, we foresee the negative development in the US will have an impact on our trade with Asia. This probably will be seen in the latter part of the third quarter as consumer demand for the year-end sale is expected to be slower in the US and Western countries,” he said.
Meanwhile, OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Bhd head of global trade finance Thing Tock Kong said Malaysia's direct exports to the United States amounted to about 10% of its total exports.
“However, some of our exports to other countries do eventually end up in the United States, although with lagging effect. So, overall, in reality, more than 10% of our goods are being sold to the United States.
“So far, based on feedback from our clients, there has not been any cancellation or deferment of orders. Thus, we see the immediate impact as minimal.
“However, as an open economy, we would be affected if the crisis in the US were to prolong and become protracted, especially in the case of exports of certain consumer products. The severity of the impact will become clearer as the situation evolves,” he said.
Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias expects Asia's trade performance to be softer in the second half of this year.
“Considering that Malaysia's exposure to the global economy is considerable (exports represent 110% of gross domestic product), the export sector will likely be affected.
“Although Malaysia's exports to the United States have declined in terms of share of total trade, indirect exports (through Asean countries and China) to the United States as well as to other G3 countries are still very significant.
“As such, we are still very much dependent on the strength of G3 economies when it comes to external trade. If the demand from G3 wanes, Malaysia's export performance will also languish,” he said.
G3 nations comprise the United States, Japan and members of the eurozone.
Briefly, trade finance is needed when an exporter requires an importer to prepay for goods shipped. The importer's bank assists by providing a letter of credit to the exporter (or the exporter's bank) providing for payment upon presentation of certain documents, such as a bill of lading.
On the bright side, Viegas said Malaysia's trade with Asia as of June recorded growth of more than 15% year-on-year (y-o-y)and saw higher growth within Asean at 25%.
“Trade with Australia and New Zealand had also posted strong growth. Although the base is still small compared with trade with the West, it will help to cushion some of the impact on declining trade with the West. We still expect growth in trade with some of the Middle Eastern countries and the rebuilding of Japan will to a certain extent help boost the trade business.
“The expected faster pace of development of the Economic Transformation Programme projects next year will also help Malaysian's trade finance business to move in a positive direction,” he said.
Meanwhile, Thing said that Malaysia's exports to China, India and Asean countries stood at about 40% of the total.
“The growing population and wealth of these markets will continue to support our exports,” he said.
Viegas said that as of June this year, RHB's trade finance business, including Islamic trade financing, grew by more 11% y-o-y, which was above the industry's growth of about 9%.
Nevertheless, despite the downgrade in credit rating in August, the United States early this month released some positive economic data that indicated growth in consumption, where orders for cars were at their highest in eight years, and companies in the private sector continued to hire, adding some 90,000 new jobs in August.
Ringgit Little Changed Ahead of Export Data, Policy Rate Review
Malaysia’s ringgit was little changed as economists predicted the central bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at a review tomorrow as export growth likely slowed.
Overseas shipments rose 6.6 percent from a year earlier in July, after having increased 8.6 percent in June, according to the median forecast of analysts in a Bloomberg survey before official data due later this week. Bank Negara Malaysia will leave its benchmark overnight rate at 3 percent tomorrow, according to all 18 economists in a separate survey. The ringgit has dropped 0.4 percent this month on speculation Europe’s lingering debt crisis will damp demand for emerging-market assets.
“The unresolved crisis in Europe and expectations of slower domestic export growth are weighing on sentiment,” said Akira Banno, a treasury adviser in Kuala Lumpur at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Bhd. “The ringgit is trying to find a comfortable level to settle down.”
The ringgit held at 2.9830 per dollar as of 5:01 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There is now a new uncertainty about prospects for recovery and growth across the globe, partly because of the inability of the U.S., Europe and Japan to address their public debt and employment problems,” International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed told reporters in Kuala Lumpur today. This has “affected business and investors confidence around the globe. Our economic fundamentals are strong, healthy and resilient.”
Malaysia’s government bonds gained as a sale calendar shows the treasury will sell November 2016 Islamic notes later this month. The yield on the 4.262 percent securities due September 2016 declined one basis point, or 0.01 percent, at a record low 3.29 percent, according to Bursa Malaysia.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
July 2011 estimate
The Star -Saturday September 3, 2011
More challenges ahead
By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my
External trade performance for July would likely show some weaknesses from preceding months
THE week ahead will be an eventful one for Malaysia, with more data for investors to chew on.
The Department of Statistics will release the country's industrial production and external trade data for July 2011. At the same time, Bank Negara's Monetary Policy Committee will meet to decide on the interest rate direction of the country over the next couple of months.
The industrial production index (IPI) a gauge of the manufacturing, mining and electricity output of the country and the external trade data which gauges the net income from import and export activities will provide a glimpse on the impact of the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the global economy on the country's economic growth for the second half of the year.
Indications so far have been less than encouraging. While there is a likelihood that Malaysia's industrial production could expand at a marginal pace, external trade performance for July would likely show further weaknesses compared with the preceding months. The consensus view is that their contributions to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) or the total value of goods and services produced, would likely narrow as we enter the second half of the year.
It is interesting to recall that Malaysia's IPI for June surprisingly grew 1% year-on-year (y-o-y) when most economists and the market were expecting another round of contraction. The surprise June IPI rebound, after a sharp contraction of 5.6% y-o-y in May, was mainly attributable to domestic-oriented manufacturing activities, which seemed to have benefited from the rollout of the Economic Transformation Programme projects.
Contributions from commodity exports expected to be moderate compared with the first half.
If such momentum could be sustained, some economists say, the industrial production figures would likely spring another surprise.
CIMB Research in its previous report explained that while it maintained its cautious outlook on the global economy, especially in the United States and eurozone, there were still factors supporting a continued expansion of Malaysia's industrial output over the short term even though the pace would not be brisk. The research house pointed to the restoration of the global supply chain as one factor that could boost the production of transport equipment as manufacturers start to rebuild inventory, and the ongoing and new infrastructure development projects as the other factor that would underpin domestic-oriented industries.
As for Malaysia's external trade, further weakness is only to be expected due to the sluggish recovery of western developed economies. Although intra-regional trade with other Asian countries, such as China and those in Asean, would likely remain resilient over the medium term, it would unlikely be sufficient to compensate for the general slowdown in global demand for products and services. And with global commodity prices softening in recent months, contributions from commodity exports would likely be moderate compared with the first half of the year.
Gross exports in June rose 8.6% y-o-y, compared with 5.4% y-o-y in May, driven largely by commodity-based products, which had more than compensated for the decline in the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector. Nevertheless, Malaysia's trade balance for June narrowed to RM7.6bil from RM8.5bil in the preceding month as imports had also accelerated at the same time.
TA Research notes that the challenges ahead for Malaysia's overall trade would stem from several factors, including the general slowdown in worldwide demand for manufactured products; the recessionary impulse and moderating growth in Asia, including China; as well as the stronger ringgit which would probably encourage more imports, while making the country's exports more expensive.
CIMB Research further points out that besides the uneven global demand, Malaysia's E&E sector also faced loss of competitiveness in terms of product specialisation. For instance, the rising demand for tablet PCs and smartphones in the global market represented an opportunity lost for Malaysian E&E manufacturers as they were not specialised in the product segment.
This underscores the importance of R&D (research and development) and innovation to a country's economy in order to keep pace with the fast-changing global trends and consumption pattern. Otherwise, one could easily lose competitiveness over time.
In the meantime, internally-generated demand will likely be Malaysia's main source of growth. The good news is domestic consumption will likely be sustained, spurred by private spending, and accelerated private investments resulting from the roll-out of ETP projects over the next six months.
Bank Negara, on the other hand, is expected to keep the benchmark overnight policy rate unchanged at 3% for two more months to create an environment that is supportive of the country's economic growth amid the ongoing challenges in the external environment.
More challenges ahead
By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my
External trade performance for July would likely show some weaknesses from preceding months
THE week ahead will be an eventful one for Malaysia, with more data for investors to chew on.
The Department of Statistics will release the country's industrial production and external trade data for July 2011. At the same time, Bank Negara's Monetary Policy Committee will meet to decide on the interest rate direction of the country over the next couple of months.
The industrial production index (IPI) a gauge of the manufacturing, mining and electricity output of the country and the external trade data which gauges the net income from import and export activities will provide a glimpse on the impact of the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the global economy on the country's economic growth for the second half of the year.
Indications so far have been less than encouraging. While there is a likelihood that Malaysia's industrial production could expand at a marginal pace, external trade performance for July would likely show further weaknesses compared with the preceding months. The consensus view is that their contributions to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) or the total value of goods and services produced, would likely narrow as we enter the second half of the year.
It is interesting to recall that Malaysia's IPI for June surprisingly grew 1% year-on-year (y-o-y) when most economists and the market were expecting another round of contraction. The surprise June IPI rebound, after a sharp contraction of 5.6% y-o-y in May, was mainly attributable to domestic-oriented manufacturing activities, which seemed to have benefited from the rollout of the Economic Transformation Programme projects.
Contributions from commodity exports expected to be moderate compared with the first half.
If such momentum could be sustained, some economists say, the industrial production figures would likely spring another surprise.
CIMB Research in its previous report explained that while it maintained its cautious outlook on the global economy, especially in the United States and eurozone, there were still factors supporting a continued expansion of Malaysia's industrial output over the short term even though the pace would not be brisk. The research house pointed to the restoration of the global supply chain as one factor that could boost the production of transport equipment as manufacturers start to rebuild inventory, and the ongoing and new infrastructure development projects as the other factor that would underpin domestic-oriented industries.
As for Malaysia's external trade, further weakness is only to be expected due to the sluggish recovery of western developed economies. Although intra-regional trade with other Asian countries, such as China and those in Asean, would likely remain resilient over the medium term, it would unlikely be sufficient to compensate for the general slowdown in global demand for products and services. And with global commodity prices softening in recent months, contributions from commodity exports would likely be moderate compared with the first half of the year.
Gross exports in June rose 8.6% y-o-y, compared with 5.4% y-o-y in May, driven largely by commodity-based products, which had more than compensated for the decline in the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector. Nevertheless, Malaysia's trade balance for June narrowed to RM7.6bil from RM8.5bil in the preceding month as imports had also accelerated at the same time.
TA Research notes that the challenges ahead for Malaysia's overall trade would stem from several factors, including the general slowdown in worldwide demand for manufactured products; the recessionary impulse and moderating growth in Asia, including China; as well as the stronger ringgit which would probably encourage more imports, while making the country's exports more expensive.
CIMB Research further points out that besides the uneven global demand, Malaysia's E&E sector also faced loss of competitiveness in terms of product specialisation. For instance, the rising demand for tablet PCs and smartphones in the global market represented an opportunity lost for Malaysian E&E manufacturers as they were not specialised in the product segment.
This underscores the importance of R&D (research and development) and innovation to a country's economy in order to keep pace with the fast-changing global trends and consumption pattern. Otherwise, one could easily lose competitiveness over time.
In the meantime, internally-generated demand will likely be Malaysia's main source of growth. The good news is domestic consumption will likely be sustained, spurred by private spending, and accelerated private investments resulting from the roll-out of ETP projects over the next six months.
Bank Negara, on the other hand, is expected to keep the benchmark overnight policy rate unchanged at 3% for two more months to create an environment that is supportive of the country's economic growth amid the ongoing challenges in the external environment.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Standard-Energy conservation
Singapore imposes new energy ruling for air-cons, fridges
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 02 September 2011 16:19
KUALA LUMPUR: The Singapore government has imposed a minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) ruling for all air-conditioners and refrigerators, effective Thursday, Sept 1.
Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade) said on Friday, Sept 2 all the air-conditioners and refrigerators, must meet the MEPS as prescribed in the Singapore Government’s Environment Protection and Management (Energy Conservation) regulations.
Matrade said these standards were specified according to the types of goods, cooling capacity (in kW), minimum coefficient of performance, adjusted volume and maximum annual energy consumption (in kW).
“All Malaysian manufacturers and exporters who supply household air-conditioners and refrigerators in Singapore must register themselves with country’s National Environment Agency (NEA).
“They also must register their air-conditioner and refrigerator models which need to carry a Certificate of Registration that is valid for three years. Once this policy comes into force, all importers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, property developers and contractors must ensure that their units are affixed with the NEA’s energy label,” it said.
Matrade advised all Malaysian exporters and manufacturers to comply immediately with the new required standards to ensure continued market access for their products in Singapore.
It also advised Malaysian companies to be wary of the possible additional cost to be incurred following the implementation of the standard.
“Apart from the registration fee which is currently at S$34 and renewal fees at S$18 for each registrable product, additional costs will be incurred when carrying out the necessary tests at the approved testing laboratories,” it said
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 02 September 2011 16:19
KUALA LUMPUR: The Singapore government has imposed a minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) ruling for all air-conditioners and refrigerators, effective Thursday, Sept 1.
Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade) said on Friday, Sept 2 all the air-conditioners and refrigerators, must meet the MEPS as prescribed in the Singapore Government’s Environment Protection and Management (Energy Conservation) regulations.
Matrade said these standards were specified according to the types of goods, cooling capacity (in kW), minimum coefficient of performance, adjusted volume and maximum annual energy consumption (in kW).
“All Malaysian manufacturers and exporters who supply household air-conditioners and refrigerators in Singapore must register themselves with country’s National Environment Agency (NEA).
“They also must register their air-conditioner and refrigerator models which need to carry a Certificate of Registration that is valid for three years. Once this policy comes into force, all importers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, property developers and contractors must ensure that their units are affixed with the NEA’s energy label,” it said.
Matrade advised all Malaysian exporters and manufacturers to comply immediately with the new required standards to ensure continued market access for their products in Singapore.
It also advised Malaysian companies to be wary of the possible additional cost to be incurred following the implementation of the standard.
“Apart from the registration fee which is currently at S$34 and renewal fees at S$18 for each registrable product, additional costs will be incurred when carrying out the necessary tests at the approved testing laboratories,” it said
July 2011 -Forecast
The Star –commodities should again lead Malaysia’s exports
Friday September 2, 2011
Commodities should again lead Malaysia’s exports
By FINTAN NG
fintan@thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: Demand for commodities from China and India will remain the main pillar of support for Malaysia's exports in July as in the previous month with the export-reliant manufacturing sector continuing to feel the impact from a drop in sales of consumer electric and electronic (E&E) goods from the United States and Europe.
Commodity exports account for roughly 40% of the country's exports.
According to Singapore-based economists, the exports front would remain volatile with July's data to mirror June's to a certain extent although exports could weaken further in August based on commodity futures prices, which have trended downward in recent months.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd economist Gundy Cahyadi told StarBiz that exports would be held up by commodities but the pace of growth could be slower compared with June.
“This is quite clear cut for exporters in Asean and this will likely be the case for Malaysia too,” he said, adding that the high proportion of commodities in Malaysia and Indonesia's exports had provided a buffer for exports.
Gundy said the rise in commodity exports must also be put into perspective as prior to the recent decline in prices, commodity prices were rising year-on-year, which in turn had lent support to exporters such as Malaysia.
For June, exports climbed 8.6% year-on-year compared with May's 5.4%, higher than a Bloomberg survey for a 5.8% rise. The growth in exports was largely due to intra-regional trade in commodities.
Gundy said although commodity prices were less price-sensitive compared with manufactured goods, this did not mean that prices would not come down should global growth slowed further.
United Overseas Bank Ltd economist Ho Woei Chen said consumer demand and infrastructure development in China would still be the best bet for Asean's export-reliant economies. “This is because China should not have a problem sustaining growth at between 8% and 9%,” she added.
However, Ho believes that Malaysia's exports could face even more challenges ahead as commodity futures have trended downwards in recent months. “This will impact August's export numbers as forward manufacturing indicators such as the industrial production index (measuring factory output) will still be low,” she said.
Meanwhile, Forecast Pte Ltd economist Radhika Rao said E&E exports would likely underperform in the second half of the year in lockstep with the regional trends as structural changes would see need for higher value-added E&E products.
“Our estimates for July are 7.4% year-on-year rise in exports, 5.6% growth in imports which should see the trade surplus widen to RM8.4bil. Trends for the third quarter should also hold up well as Japan steps up demand after the disasters earlier in the year,” she said.
Radhika said fortunately for Malaysian exporters, nearly 60% of total shipments went to intra-Asian trade with China and India making up nearly 17% of total purchases.
“This should again lend some support for the headline exports, though that is not to mean it will be completely shielded from pullback in demand from the West,” she said.
The commodity-exports angle was still in favour of the economy, given the products' relative price-inelasticity, she added.
“Overall while Malaysia is partly shielded, marked weakness in key Western markets, especially the United States and Japan, will hurt local exporters. A firmer ringgit is also an additional burden,” he said.
Friday September 2, 2011
Commodities should again lead Malaysia’s exports
By FINTAN NG
fintan@thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: Demand for commodities from China and India will remain the main pillar of support for Malaysia's exports in July as in the previous month with the export-reliant manufacturing sector continuing to feel the impact from a drop in sales of consumer electric and electronic (E&E) goods from the United States and Europe.
Commodity exports account for roughly 40% of the country's exports.
According to Singapore-based economists, the exports front would remain volatile with July's data to mirror June's to a certain extent although exports could weaken further in August based on commodity futures prices, which have trended downward in recent months.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd economist Gundy Cahyadi told StarBiz that exports would be held up by commodities but the pace of growth could be slower compared with June.
“This is quite clear cut for exporters in Asean and this will likely be the case for Malaysia too,” he said, adding that the high proportion of commodities in Malaysia and Indonesia's exports had provided a buffer for exports.
Gundy said the rise in commodity exports must also be put into perspective as prior to the recent decline in prices, commodity prices were rising year-on-year, which in turn had lent support to exporters such as Malaysia.
For June, exports climbed 8.6% year-on-year compared with May's 5.4%, higher than a Bloomberg survey for a 5.8% rise. The growth in exports was largely due to intra-regional trade in commodities.
Gundy said although commodity prices were less price-sensitive compared with manufactured goods, this did not mean that prices would not come down should global growth slowed further.
United Overseas Bank Ltd economist Ho Woei Chen said consumer demand and infrastructure development in China would still be the best bet for Asean's export-reliant economies. “This is because China should not have a problem sustaining growth at between 8% and 9%,” she added.
However, Ho believes that Malaysia's exports could face even more challenges ahead as commodity futures have trended downwards in recent months. “This will impact August's export numbers as forward manufacturing indicators such as the industrial production index (measuring factory output) will still be low,” she said.
Meanwhile, Forecast Pte Ltd economist Radhika Rao said E&E exports would likely underperform in the second half of the year in lockstep with the regional trends as structural changes would see need for higher value-added E&E products.
“Our estimates for July are 7.4% year-on-year rise in exports, 5.6% growth in imports which should see the trade surplus widen to RM8.4bil. Trends for the third quarter should also hold up well as Japan steps up demand after the disasters earlier in the year,” she said.
Radhika said fortunately for Malaysian exporters, nearly 60% of total shipments went to intra-Asian trade with China and India making up nearly 17% of total purchases.
“This should again lend some support for the headline exports, though that is not to mean it will be completely shielded from pullback in demand from the West,” she said.
The commodity-exports angle was still in favour of the economy, given the products' relative price-inelasticity, she added.
“Overall while Malaysia is partly shielded, marked weakness in key Western markets, especially the United States and Japan, will hurt local exporters. A firmer ringgit is also an additional burden,” he said.
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