Malaysia's Trade in Nov 2009

Monthy export unpredictable.....

Malaysia Nov exports fall unexpectedly year-on-year
By Rupa Damodaran
Published: 2010/01/08


NOVEMBER’S exports dipped unexpectedly by 3.3 per cent from a year ago, but economists are confident that Malaysia is still on the way to recovery although the road will be slightly bumpy.
The market had expected a modest 2 per cent growth after October’s small gain.

However, exports fell 7.7 per cent from October.CIMB Investment Bank chief economist Lee Heng Guie said the recovery of exports is well on track to achieve 8 to 10 per cent growth for the whole year.“The external sector has emerged from the worst, on the back of global recovery and improving prospects for the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector as well as commodity prices,” he said.Total trade for the month amounted to RM91.25 billion, a decrease of 0.9 per cent from a year ago.

The International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti), in releasing the data yesterday, said most sectors recorded a decline in exports in November, except for transport equipment, petroleum products, metalliferous ores and metal scrap as well as palm oil.HSBC Bank senior Asian economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde also felt that the numbers were not that bad.“In our view, the trend is up and will remain so over the course of 2010 as stronger regional/global domestic demand continues to translate into stronger trade flows,” he added.However, Alvin Liew of Standard Chartered Bank said the contraction raises some concerns for the manufacturing sector, especially if the global recovery is sluggish this year.“When we look at the past exports data, Malaysia’s significant contraction rate (double-digit) started in December.


“So we can assume that the impact from a favourable base effect will be more material for exports from December 2009 onwards, and we certainly expect to see exports return to positive growth in next month’s data release.”Meanwhile, Miti said Singapore, China, the US, Japan and Thailand ranked as the top five export destinations, accounting for 54.3 per cent of Malaysia’s total exports.


Exports to Asean, which accounted for 26 per cent of total exports in November, decreased compared to October due to lower exports of crude petroleum, E&E products, machinery, appliances and parts, manufactures of metal as well as iron and steel products.Miti also noted that although exports to China dipped in November compared to October, they surged by 52.9 per cent versus a year ago, unlike those to the the US and the European Union where exports decreased by 13.1 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively.

Total imports in November 2009 increased by 2.3 per cent to RM41.19 billion from November 2008, due mainly to higher imports of capital goods.Total trade during the first eleven months of 2009 was valued at RM890.99 billion, a decrease of 19.3 per cent from the corresponding period of 2008.Between January and November, exports declined by 19.2 per cent to RM498.62 billion, while imports were lower by 19.4 per cent to RM392.36 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of RM106.26 billion.


Chinese demand drives regional recovery
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22c077fe-fb43-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
By Kevin Brown in Singapore and Justine Lau in Hong Kong

Published: January 7 2010 06:37 Last updated: January 7 2010 15:53
Asian exports to China soared at the end of last year according to a slew of data released on Thursday, suggesting that Chinese demand is emerging as a stronger than expected engine of economic recovery in the region.

The biggest jump came in South Korea, which said December exports to China jumped 94 per cent compared with the same month a year ago. Taiwan reported a 91.2 per cent jump in the value of shipments for December, and Malaysia said exports jumped 52.9 per cent in November from a year earlier.

The strong demand from China compared with generally falling exports to the US and Japan, although shipments to the European Union were generally higher. Malaysia said exports to the US fell by 13 per cent, and to Japan by nearly 30 per cent.

Overall export performance was more mixed, with South Korea reporting a rise of 33.67 per cent and Taiwan up 46.9 per cent while Malaysia was down 3.3 per cent.

Australia said it suffered a 27.5 per cent drop in exports in November from the same period a year earlier, and New Zealand said exports in the same month were down by 16.7 per cent.
However, economists said it was becoming clear that China’s strong economic growth in 2009 had generated much stronger consumer demand for Asian products than forecast.

Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said the size of the spike in exports to China in Thursday’s data was in part a reflection of the size of the falls in exports as the global financial crisis developed. However, Mr Neumann said there was “plenty of evidence” that Chinese demand for consumer products such as flat television screens had replaced a large part of the falling demand in North America and elsewhere.

“Going into this crisis we never thought that, if China recovered, it would suck in imports from other Asian countries on a scale that could play a serious role in generating regional economic recovery, but that seems to be what is happening,” he said.

The export figures follow data earlier this week showing that industrial production around the region is recovering fast, with both China and India seeing significant improvements in manufacturing sentiment.

In spite of the poor Australian export numbers, the Australian currency rose as much as 0.75 per cent to $0.9268 as the country’s outlook was further boosted by much stronger than expected retail sales .

November retail sales climbed 1.4 per cent from October, compared with a rise of 0.4 per cent a month earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The increase was more than four times the consensus economic forecast.

The ABS said sales rose across all industry groups, with clothing, footwear and other accessory retailing reporting the strongest growth at 2.5 per cent.

“Everybody seems to be booming,” said Tim Condon, Asia chief economist at ING in Singapore. “I think the trend is likely to continue into the first half of 2010. I don’t really see anything stopping it.”

Additional reporting by Song Jung-a in Seoul


FinancialMalaysia Nov. Trade Surplus Shrinks 01/07/10 05:44 am (EST)

(RTTNews) - Thursday, the Department of Statistics Malaysia announced that the trade surplus stood at MYR 8.88 billion in November, down from MYR 11.47 billion in October. This was the 145th consecutive month of trade surplus since November 1997. Economists expected a trade surplus of MYR 11.55 billion.

Exports decreased 7.7% month-on-month to MYR 50.07 billion in November from MYR 54.26 billion in October. This was the second highest monthly exports for 2009. At the same time, imports dropped 3.7% to MYR 41.19 billion.

On an annual basis, exports declined 3.3% in November, in contrast to a 1.6% growth in the previous month. Economists were looking for an increase of 3%. Meanwhile, imports grew 2.3% in November, came in line with economists expectations. In October, imports were down 2.3%.


Malaysia Nov exports likely to improve
By Rupa damodaran
Published: 2010/01/07


EXPORTS for November are expected to show improvement, the second straight month of gains, supported by recovering global demand, economists say.A Business Times poll is looking at a 2.07 per cent average growth in exports, supported by 2.86 per cent growth in imports. This would lead to a RM11.45 billion trade balance.The International Trade and Industry Ministry will release the data today.TA Research said exports are likely to continue expanding in November and December 2009, with the worldwide seasonal festive demand for goods and services.

"It is expected to improve due to the base effect and gradually improving external demand while late Christmas orders could also be responsible for bringing some holiday cheers to Malaysia exporters," said Alvin Liew's Standard Chartered Bank. DBS Bank expects a 1.6 per cent gain in November exports, following the 1.6 per cent expansion in October."While the key export growth figure has bounced back to positive ground one month ahead of our prediction, the point to note is that a broad-based and sustained recovery is taking place nicely in the global economy, which is giving the Malaysia economy a much-needed jab in the arm," said economist Irvin Seah.

This is likely to mean positive economic growth in the fourth quarter.Seah expects the economy to grow by 1.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, which translates into a GDP growth of -2.4 per cent in 2009. He has forecast a 5 per cent growth this year.US investment bank Citi, however, expects a a decline of 3.9 per cent on a month-on-month basis, after the big 14.9 per cent jump the previous month."There is an upside risk to this though, with October's industrial production showing the first positive 0.7 per cent year-on-year growth since August 2008, said economist Kit Wei Zheng.Electrical and electronics products could continue its expansion, he said, although likely lower than the double-digit expansion in October.Commodity exports may register improvements as prices recover, although still lower than last year's levels.




Malaysia's exports drop 3.3% in November

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1029225/1/.htmlPosted: 08 January 2010 0050 hrs
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian exports fell 3.3 percent in November as demand fell off for electrical and electronic goods, according to official data released on Thursday.

The trade ministry said exports declined to 51.79 billion ringgit (15.38 billion dollars) year-on-year although imports rose 2.3 percent to 40.28 billion ringgit, with a surplus of 8.88 billion ringgit. There was also a drop-off in shipments of chemicals as well as machinery goods. Exports had risen 1.6 percent in October, for the first time in 12 months after slumping 24.2 percent in September and 19.8 percent in August.

Total trade from in the first 11 months was 890.99 billion ringgit, a decrease of 19.3 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to the ministry. Malaysia's export-dependent economy has been hit hard by the global recession, contracting by a forecast 3.0 percent this year and jeopardising its ambitions of becoming a developed nation by 2020. - AFP/de


Malaysia exports surges in March
(AFP) – 1 day ago

KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia said Tuesday that its key exports rose 36.4 percent in March on the back of to stronger demand for electronic goods.

The trade ministry said shipments jumped to 59.44 billion ringgit (18.5 billion dollars) while imports were up 45.3 percent to 45.09 billion ringgit.

International trade minister Mustapa Mohamed said the volume of exports were at their highest since September 2008 when the global financial crisis kicked in.

The ministry said the increase was due to stronger demand for electrical and electronic products (up 31.8 percent), chemicals and chemical products (60.8 percent) and palm oil (49.3 percent).

Electrical and electronic items account for more than one-third of Malaysia's total exports to key markets such as China, Singapore, Japan, Thailand and the United States.

For the three months to March, exports fell 0.2 percent to 158.73 billion ringgit compared with the previous quarter, while imports contracted 5.4 percent.

Export-dependent Malaysia, Southeast Asia's third-largest economy, was hit hard by the global recession and its economy shrank 1.7 percent last year, although the central bank has forecast 5.5 percent growth for 2010.

Prime Minister Najib Razak has unveiled plans for bold economic reforms, including an overhaul of racial preferences for majority Malays, in a bid to boost growth and attract badly needed foreign investment.